Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.300574 1.474799 1.659403 1.869125 2.100314 2.346922 2.629402
2025-01-19 1.024220 1.256284 1.517839 1.832789 2.199971 2.612714 3.109861
2025-01-26 0.857622 1.132525 1.460625 1.877090 2.387304 2.987473 3.741924
2025-02-02 0.717544 1.019718 1.401212 1.910583 2.564382 3.366338 4.414238
2025-02-09 0.593714 0.908831 1.329624 1.919946 2.712237 3.723110 5.092206
2025-02-16 0.494627 0.815553 1.268477 1.934940 2.868038 4.103030 5.831582
2025-02-23 0.396980 0.707868 1.172571 1.890381 2.938668 4.376976 6.455227
2025-03-02 0.309444 0.599462 1.059717 1.806736 2.944713 4.562412 6.973279
2025-03-09 0.255893 0.535946 1.005737 1.803266 3.064749 4.914677 7.746527
2025-03-16 0.207516 0.471503 0.940323 1.773035 3.140136 5.206760 8.453216
2025-03-23 0.180811 0.441734 0.928863 1.828448 3.352660 5.716043 9.509010
2025-03-30 0.144117 0.383763 0.858088 1.774022 3.382202 5.947409 10.162752
2025-04-06 0.117214 0.341108 0.811265 1.760282 3.485501 6.313538 11.066763
2025-04-13 0.093803 0.299862 0.759972 1.731522 3.560237 6.639863 11.931411
2025-04-20 0.080718 0.280096 0.749359 1.778529 3.772384 7.205139 13.210088
2025-04-27 0.068789 0.259813 0.734102 1.814399 3.967568 7.755279 14.496918
2025-05-04 0.057315 0.237003 0.708888 1.826445 4.119118 8.240593 15.704308
2025-05-11 0.047996 0.217357 0.687376 1.843300 4.280926 8.753635 16.985909
2025-05-18 0.037813 0.190605 0.642526 1.802428 4.324847 9.059067 17.929107
2025-05-25 0.028356 0.161630 0.584950 1.723510 4.283124 9.204635 18.600980
2025-06-01 0.023122 0.146317 0.561459 1.721352 4.399279 9.647943 19.818704
2025-06-08 0.018208 0.129480 0.529396 1.693190 4.456713 9.982831 20.857560
2025-06-15 0.015913 0.123638 0.529764 1.747293 4.697645 10.682619 22.590163